What the Future is Bringing Us (2010)



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 * (2004) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) planning document developed by David Moursund. The goal was to facilitate the development of a sequence of 1-credit (quarter hour system) graduate-level joint preservice and inservice courses to be taught at the University of Oregon.


 * (2000 to 2003) Golden Oldie News Oct-December 2000 up through Jan-March 2003. These materials were moved from an old Oregon Technology Education Council (OTEC) site developed by David Moursund). Most of the links in the referenced articles no longer work.


 * (1987 Futuristic Math Education Scenarios).


 * (1974 to 2001) All of David Moursund's editorials published in Learning and Leading with Technology from its inception in 1974 until he retired from ISTE in 2001.

BigDog is a rough-terrain robot built by Boston Dynamics that walks, runs, climbs and carries heavy loads. BigDog is powered by an engine that drives a hydraulic actuation system. BigDog has four legs that are articulated like an animal’s, with compliant elements to absorb shock and recycle energy from one step to the next. BigDog is the size of a large dog or small mule; about 3 feet long, 2.5 feet tall and weighs 240 lbs. See more pictures of social robots at http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=pictures+social+robots&qpvt=pictures+social+robots&qpvt=pictures+social+robots&FORM=IQFRML.



See MIT's Electric Cheetah Robot video at http://www.engadget.com/2014/09/15/mit-darpa-cheetah-robot/.



The Cray-2 supercomputer was the world's fastest supercomputer until 1990. But even with a performance of up to 1.9 GFLOPS, the liquid-cooled, 200-kilowatt machine ranks behind a number of "modern" portable, battery-powered Smart phones when it comes to GFLOPS ratings.

Year 2010 Table of Contents



 * "All education springs from some image of the future. If the image of the future held by a society is grossly inaccurate, its education system will betray its youth." (Alvin Toffler; American writer and futurist; born October 3, 1928.)


 * "Don't worry about what anybody else is going to do… The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn't violate too many of Newton's Laws!" (Alan Kay; American computer scientist and educator; born May 17, 1940.)

Introduction
All of education is future oriented. Through informal and formal education, students are being prepared for their futures. Of course, a major goal of education is to preserve and pass on the culture, values, history, and so on from the past. Ideally, this is done in a manner that helps prepare students for their futures as members of local, regional, national, and world societies.

Special Message for Teachers. Consider establishing a "futures" time period each week, in which you engage your students in an exploration of possible futures they will live in and how the subject(s) you are teaching are helping to prepare them for these possible futures. One way to do this is to select a topic from the (growing) list given below. Engage students in a discussion of what they know about the topic. Perhaps point them to some material to read. Engage them in a discussion of how the content you are teaching fits in with preparing them for life in a world in which the forecasts may well come true.

Another approach is to encourage your students to bring in hard-copy materials and Web links that contain forecasts of the future. Each week a different small team of students could assume responsibility for leading the weekly "futures" session.

Still another approach is to raise the following question with your students near the beginning of any new unit of study: "What changes are going on around the world that are having a major impact on this unit of study?" The idea is to emphasize change and that you are helping your students get an education that prepares them for a changing world.

Teachers working with students may also be interested in having students research and report on a "futures prediction" from five or ten years ago, or perhaps when they were in first grade, or the year they were born, and so on. They can find out which predictions have become part of our world today and which ones failed, and why or why not in each case.

A Free Book on Future of ICT in Education
The following book is available free on the Web in both PDF and Microsoft Word formats.


 * Moursund, D.G. (2005). Planning, Forecasting, and Inventing Your Computers-in-Education Future. Eugene, OR: Information Age Education. Retrieved 11/20/2010 from http://i-a-e.org/downloads/doc_download/23-planning-forecasting-and-inventing-your-computers-in-education-future.html.

Quoting from the Preface:


 * I strongly believe that our educational system can be a lot better than it currently is. Indeed, I predict that during the next two decades we will substantially improve our educational system. In this book, I enlist your help in making this prediction come true.


 * The focus in this book is on two aspects of improving our educational system:


 * Improving the quality of education that K-12 students are receiving.
 * Improving the professional lives of teachers and other educators.


 * This book is mainly designed for preservice and inservice teachers and other educators. If you fall into this category, you will find that this book focuses on your possible futures of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in education. It will do this by:


 * Helping you to make and implement some ICT-related decisions that will likely prove very important to you during your professional career in education.
 * Helping you to increase your own productivity and effectiveness as you work to improve the quality of education being received by your students.

Some Forecasts
This section contains relatively recent forecasts of future technology that are important to our current and future educational systems. For the most part, the most recent entries are at the top of this section.

Some 5-year IBM forecasts
IBM (12/10/2010). IBM lists its next five innovations. Retrieved 12/17/2010 from http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/12/ibm-lists-its-next-five-in-five.html. The five forecasts listed are in the areas:


 * # Linking all of the simple sensors in cellphones and other devices to provide a real time view of the world for scientists
 * # 3D hologram conferencing
 * # Metal air batteries and static electricity harvesting
 * # Computers will help energize the city (cogeneration using waste heat from data centers)
 * # Personalized commutes

IBM chip breakthrough
Shah, Agam (11/30/2010). IBM chip breakthrough may lead to exascale supercomputers. Computerworld. Retrieved 12/4/2010 from http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9198799/IBM_chip_breakthrough_may_lead_to_exascale_supercomputers. Quoting from the article:


 * IBM researchers have made a breakthrough in using pulses of light to accelerate data transfer between chips, something they say could boost the performance of supercomputers by more than a thousand times.


 * The new technology, called CMOS Integrated Silicon Nanophotonics, integrates electrical and optical modules on a single piece of silicon, allowing electrical signals created at the transistor level to be converted into pulses of light that allow chips to communicate at faster speeds, said Will Green, silicon photonics research scientist at IBM.


 * The technology could lead to massive advances in the power of supercomputers, according to IBM. Today's fastest supercomputers top out at around 2 petaflops, or two thousand trillion calculations per second.


 * The photonics technology could boost that to a million trillion calculations per second, or an exaflop, helping IBM to achieve its goal of building an exascale computer by 2020, Green said.

Climate models and blood-flow simulations using the fastest of modern computers
Schleifstein, M. (11/18/2010). Efforts to assess local effects of global warming discussed at computer conference. Retrieved 11/29/2010 from http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2010/11/efforts_to_assess_local_effect.html.

Comment by Dave Moursund: The science of climate modeling is steadily improving. Thus, we are learning what to measure and how to measure it. In computer models, the earth's atmosphere is divided into blocks that vary somewhat in size, but you can get a rough idea of the size by thinking in terms of blocks that are a 25 miles high, 100 miles wide, and 100 miles long. Suppose that one instead divides the atmosphere into blocks half as high, half as wide, and half as long. This increases the number of blocks by a factor of eight. One gains increased precision in the results of the climate forecast, but at a cost of doing eight times the number of calculations.

However, even these smaller blocks are quite large in climate modeling, as climate can vary considerably in a region the size of such a block. One of the goals of still faster supercomputers is to be able to do more accurate forecasts of climate change based on smaller blocks.

There are many other types of computer models of problems of considerable interest, where today's supercomputers are just not fast enough to produce the accuracy that is needed. The article at http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/georgia-tech-led-team-wins-gordon-bell-prize-supercomputing discusses a model of blood flow. Quoting from the article:


 * Biros and his 11 teammates, which included colleagues not only from Georgia Tech but also from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and New York University (NYU), created a blood-flow simulation of 260 million deformable red blood cells flowing in plasma. The team ran its application on ORNL’s Jaguar supercomputer. Using 196,000 of Jaguar’s 224,000 processor cores, the application pushed the machine to 700 trillion calculations per second, or 700 teraflops. The simulation amounted to a successful resolution of 90 billion unknown dimensions in space, and topped the previous largest blood-flow simulation (of 14,000 cells) by four orders of magnitude.

Forecasts from past and current directors of the U.S. Office of Educational Technology
T.H.E. Journal (11/10/2010). 2020Vision: Experts forecast what the Digital Revolution will bring next. Retrieved 11/17/2010 fromhttp://thejournal.com/Articles/2010/11/01/Talkin-about-a-Revolution.aspx. Quoting from the article:


 * Directors of the federal Office of Educational Technology both past and present—as well as a range of ed tech leaders nationwide—predict what the digital revolution has in store for the next decade, while taking account of its impact to date. Plus: a timeline of learning technologies.


 * In September 1993, Linda Roberts was appointed inaugural director of the newly created Office of Educational Technology within the US Department of Education. The phrase “surfing the internet” was but a year old, and the tide was still low for the few knowledgeable enough to test the waters. Broadband and wireless held significance only to the most sophisticated techies.


 * So much has changed since then, but Roberts (who headed the Office of Educational Technology until 2001) and two of her three successors, John Bailey (2001-2004) and Karen Cator (the current director, appointed to the position in 2009), agree that the most dramatic technology-enabled transformations are still ahead of us. Recently, the three of them sat down with T.H.E. Journal Editorial Director Geoff Fletcher to discuss how far we’ve come in education technology, and where we can expect to go.


 * Projecting ahead to 2020, what will students’ experiences look like?


 * Cator: We’re talking about the opportunity for students to wake up in the morning with a strong sense of purpose that they’re going to school because they are in the business of learning. They are empowered with their own device, their own learning record, their own feedback. They know what they’re going to do next without having to wait for someone to tell them. And they have access to the people around them—not just physically around them, but people who might be online, the experts, anyone who can help them get where they need to go. They will still go to a place and still have these people called teachers who are working with them and are connected with their work.

Federal Reductions in Spending for Scientific Research
Chang, K. (11/3/2010). Money for scientific research may be scarce with a Republican-led House. Business Day. Retrieved 11/5/2010 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/business/04research.html?_r=1.

Quoting from the article:


 * In the Republican platform, Pledge to America, the party vows to cut discretionary nonmilitary spending to 2008 levels. Under that plan, research and development at nonmilitary agencies — including those that sponsor science and health research —  would fall 12.3 percent, to $57.8 billion, from the Mr. Obama’s request of $65.9 billion for fiscal year 2011.


 * An analysis by the American Association for the Advancement of Science looked at what would happen if all of the agencies were cut to the 2008 amounts. The National Institutes of Health would lose $2.9 billion, or 9 percent, of its research money. The National Science Foundation would lose more than $1 billion, or almost 19 percent, of its budget, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would lose $324 million, or 34 percent.

Comment by Dave Moursund: The collective "knowledge, skills, and brainpower" of a nation is one measure of its strength. In the United States, we support a large number of research scientists. A cut in spending in this area decreases the total amount of support for scientific research, and eventually leads to a weakening of our nation in this particular measure of a nation's strength.

Fast Chinese Supercomputer
Vance, A. (10/28/2010). China wrests supercomputer title from U.S. The New York Times. Retrieved 11/3/2010 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/technology/28compute.html?_r=1. Quoting from the article:


 * A Chinese scientific research center has built the fastest supercomputer ever made, replacing the United States as maker of the swiftest machine, and giving China bragging rights as a technology superpower
 * The computer, known as Tianhe-1A, has 1.4 times the horsepower of the current top computer, which is at a national laboratory in Tennessee, as measured by the standard test used to gauge how well the systems handle mathematical calculations, said Jack Dongarra, a University of Tennessee computer scientist who maintains the official supercomputer rankings.

Comment by Dave Moursund: Companies and governments are faced by challenging problems that are amenable to the use of computers for solution. This makes it very important to continue to fund the development of faster and faster computers. At the same time, our school systems do not provide students with much insight into computational thinking (including modeling and simulation) as a powerful approach to representing and solving complex problems.

Rapid Growth in Data to Be Mined
Collett, S. (8/23/20100). Five indispensable IT skills of the future. Computerworld. Retrieved 8/27/2010 from http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/350908/5_Indispensable_IT_Skills_of_the_Future. Quoting from the article:


 * In the year 2020, technical expertise will no longer be the sole province of the IT department. Employees throughout the organization will understand how to use technology to do their jobs.


 * Yet futurists and IT experts say that the most sought-after IT-related skills will be those that involve the ability to mine overwhelming amounts of data, protect systems from security threats, manage the risks of growing complexity in new systems, and communicate how technology can increase productivity.


 * By 2020, the amount of data generated each year will reach 35 zettabytes, or about 35 million petabytes, according to market researcher IDC. That's enough data to fill a stack of DVDs reaching from the Earth to the moon and back, according to John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC.

Comment by Dave Moursund: A petabyte is 10^15 bytes. A zettabyte is 10^21 bytes. A medium length novel is about 10^6 bytes. The holdings of the U.S. Library of Congress are less than a petabyte. So the prediction is that, by ten years from now, we will be collecting data at the rate equal to the holdings of 35 million Libraries of Congress per year.

Thought-controlled Computers
Edwards, L. (8/25/2010). Thought-controlled computers on the way: Intel. Retrieved 8/27/2010 from http://www.physorg.com/news201939898.html. Quoting from the article:


 * Intel scientists are currently mapping out brain activity produced when people think of particular words, by measuring activity at about 20,000 locations in the brain. The devices being used to do the mapping at the moment are expensive and bulky MRI scanners, similar to those used in hospitals, but senior researcher at Intel, Dean Pomerlau, said smaller gadgets that could be worn on the head are being developed. Once the brain activity is mapped out the computer will be able to determine what words are being thought by identifying similar brain patterns and differences between them.

Comment by Dave Moursund: Progress in this area sounds somewhat like science fiction coming alive. The educational and communication implications are interesting. Also see the article about Decreasing Ability to Write in China and Japan.

Decreasing Ability to Write in China and Japan
Evans, J. (8/26/2010). Wired youth forget how to write in China and Japan. Retrieved 8/27/2010 from http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100826/tc_afp/lifestylehongkongchinajapanculturetechnology. Quoting from the article:


 * Like every Chinese child, Li Hanwei spent her schooldays memorising thousands of the intricate characters that make up the Chinese writing system.


 * Yet aged just 21 and now a university student in Hong Kong, Li already finds that when she picks up a pen to write, the characters for words as simple as "embarrassed" have slipped from her mind.


 * "I can remember the shape, but I can't remember the strokes that you need to write it," she says. "It's a bit of a problem."


 * Surveys indicate the phenomenon, dubbed "character amnesia", is widespread across China, causing young Chinese to fear for the future of their ancient writing system.


 * Young Japanese people also report the problem, which is caused by the constant use of computers and mobile phones with alphabet-based input systems.

Five Billionth Devices Plugged into the Web
Cox, J. (8/16/2010). Five billionth device about to plug into Internet. NetWorkWorld. retrieved 8/24/2010 from http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/081610-5billion-devices-internet.html.

Note that the earth's population is about 6.6 billion people. Quoting from the article:


 * Sometime this month, the 5 billionth device will plug into the Internet. And in 10 years, that number will grow by more than a factor of four, according to IMS Research, which tracks the installed base of equipment that can access the Internet.


 * On the surface, this second tidal wave of growth will be driven by cell phones and new classes of consumer electronics, according to an IMS statement. But an even bigger driver will be largely invisible: machine-to-machine communications in various kinds of smart grids for energy management, surveillance and public safety, traffic and parking control, and sensor networks.


 * Today, there are over 1 billion computers that regularly connect to the Internet. That class of devices, including PCs and laptops and their associated networking gear, continues to grow. But cellular devices, such as Internet-connected smartphones, have outstripped that total and are growing at a much faster rate. Then add in tablets, eBook readers, Internet TVs, cameras, digital picture frames, and a host of other networked consumer electronics devices, and the IMS forecast of 22 billion Internet devices by 2020 doesn’t seem far fetched.

Note: A related article by Neil Savage in the August 2010 issue of the Communications of the ACM states:


 * Last year an executive from telecom giant Ericsson predicted that 50 billion devices will be connected by 2020, leading to an “Internet of things” in which everyday objects become part of the network, gathering new types of data and creating possibilities that didn’t previously exist.

Increased Hard Drive Capacity
Williams, M. (8/18/2010). Toshiba claims data storage breakthrough. Retrieved 8/21/2010 from http://www.infoworld.com/d/storage/toshiba-claims-data-storage-breakthrough-278. Quoting from the article:


 * Toshiba's sample media is still in the prototype stage, but is built at a density equivalent to 2.5 terabits per square inch. Contrast that with Toshiba's current highest capacity drive today, which is based on existing technology and has a density of 541 gigabits per square inch or about one fifth that of the new technology.
 * Toshiba expects the first drives based on bit-patterned media to hit the market around 2013.

Quantum Computers
University of Pittsburgh News (8/3/2010). Pitt-Led researchers to build Foundation for Quantum Supercomputers with $7.5 million Federal grant. Retrieved 8/9/2010 from http://www.news.pitt.edu/news/LevyMURI2010_supercomputers. The following quote from the article indicates that the U.S. Federal Government is investing heavily in the future of Quantum Computers.


 * PITTSBURGH—A research team based at the University of Pittsburgh has received a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the U.S. Department of Defense to tackle some of the most significant challenges preventing the development of quantum computers, powerful devices that could solve problems too complex for all of the world’s computers working together over the age of the Universe to crack. The project was one of 32 nationwide selected from 152 proposals to receive a grant from the Multi-University Research Initiative (MURI) program; a total of $227 million was distributed to institutions that include Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and the University of Pennsylvania.[Bold added for emphasis.]

An Inexpensive Headset that Reads Brainwaves
Le, T. (July 2010). Tan Le: A headset that reads your brainwaves. TED. Retrieved 7/26/2010 from http://www.ted.com/talks/tan_le_a_headset_that_reads_your_brainwaves.html.


 * In this 10:37 video, we see "Tan Le's astonishing new computer interface read its user's brainwaves, making it possible to control virtual objects, and even physical electronics, with mere thoughts (and a little concentration). She demos the headset, and talks about its far-reaching applications."

World's Least Expensive Laptop Computer
Doyle, E. (7/26/2010). World’s cheapest laptop unveiled in India. IT Pro. Retrieved 7/26/2010 from http://www.itpro.co.uk/625486/world-s-cheapest-laptop-unveiled-in-india. Quoting from the article:


 * India has developed the world’s cheapest touch screen laptop, which is expected to cost under £20. [Under $30 U.S.]


 * In reality, the Sakshat has more in common with the Apple iPad than a laptop because it gives only basic features.


 * These include Web browsing, PDF viewing and videoconferencing, although it has been designed to allow for future customisation and development.


 * The computer has been developed as an affordable option for students and was, itself, designed by students at the Indian Institute of Technology and the Indian Institute of Science.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether this device enters mass production and meets the needs of students and other intended users.

An Internet 100 Times as Fast
Hardesty, L. (6/28/2010). An Internet 100 times as fast. A new network design that avoids the need to convert optical signals into electrical ones could boost capacity while reducing power consumption. MIT News. Retrieved 7/5/2010 from http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/100x-internet-0628.html. Quoting from the article:


 * The heart of the Internet is a network of high-capacity optical fibers that spans continents. But while optical signals transmit information much more efficiently than electrical signals, they’re harder to control. The routers that direct traffic on the Internet typically convert optical signals to electrical ones for processing, then convert them back for transmission, a process that consumes time and energy.


 * In recent years, however, a group of MIT researchers led by Vincent Chan, the Joan and Irwin Jacobs Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, has demonstrated a new way of organizing optical networks that, in most cases, would eliminate this inefficient conversion process. As a result, it could make the Internet 100 or even 1,000 times faster while actually reducing the amount of energy it consumes.

Living Earth Simulator
AlphaGalileo (26 May 2010). Social supercomputing is now. Retrieved 6/3/2010 from http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=76919&CultureCode=en. Quoting from the article:


 * Supercomputers are already being used to explore complex social and economic problems that science can understand in no other way. For example, ETH Zurich's professor for transport engineering Kay Axhausen is simulating the travel activities of all 7.5 Million inhabitants of Switzerland to forecast and mitigate traffic congestion. Other researchers at the ETH -- all working within its Competence Center for Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems (CCSS) -- are mining huge amounts of financial data to detect dangerous bubbles in stock and housing markets, potential bankruptcy cascades in networks of companies, or similar vulnerabilities in other complex networks such as communication networks or the Internet

Comment by Dave Moursund: Progress is occurring in simulating the activities of large populations of people. The more powerful the computer system, the more fine-grained the simulation. Such work is helping to increase the use of computational thinking in the social sciences.

Seven Atom Transistor
BBC News (5/24/2010). Seven atom transistor sets the pace for future PCs. Retrieved 5/24/2010 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/10146704.stm. Quoting from the website:


 * The Australian creators of the transistor hope it is also a step towards a solid-state quantum computer.


 * The transistor is not the smallest ever created as two research groups have previously managed to produce working single-atom transistors.


 * However, the device is many times smaller than the components found in chips in contemporary computers. On chips where components are 22 nanometres in size, transistor gates are about 42 atoms across.


 * The researchers are a long way from a commercial process because the tiny transistor they created was handmade. The team used a scanning tunnelling microscope to move the phosphorus atoms into place.

Total Worldwide Digital Information
KurzweilAI.net (5/5/2010). Digital information will grow to 1.2 zettabytes this year: IDC study. Quoting from the article:


 * Last year, the Digital Universe (the amount of digital information created and replicated in the world) grew by 62% to nearly 800,000 petabytes (a petabyte is a million gigabytes, or a quintillion bytes), and this year, the Digital Universe will grow almost as fast to 1.2 million petabytes, or 1.2 zettabytes, according to IDC's annual report, "The Digital Universe Decade - Are You Ready?" May 2010, which monitors the amount of digital information created and replicated in a year.


 * "Between now and 2020, the amount of digital information created and replicated in the world will grow to an almost inconceivable 35 trillion gigabytes, as all major forms of media -- voice, TV, radio, print -- complete the journey from analog to digital.... This explosive growth means that by 2020, our Digital Universe will be 44 times as big as it was in 2009."

Reasons Why Advanced Technology Classrooms Fail
Leiboff, M.D. (4/18/2010). 11 reasons advance technology classrooms fail. Campus Technology. Retrieved 4/28/2010 from http://campustechnology.com/articles/2010/04/28/11-reasons-advanced-technology-classrooms-fail.aspx. Quoting from the article:


 * Unfortunately and all too frequently, however, there have been stories of disaster as well. "We spent all this money, and nobody uses the equipment." "Nobody can figure out how to work the controls." "Somebody changed all the settings." "The technology is too complicated, and I don't have the time to figure it out." "The equipment just doesn't work." … Unfortunately, many of the seeds of future problems are inadvertently planted during the early planning stages of the classroom design process and in large measure could have been avoided. Here is a list of planning pitfalls to watch out for.

Memory Resistors and a CPU
Johnson, R.C. (4/9/2010). End of the CPU? HP demos configurable memristor. 'Stateful logic' paradigm could extend Moore's Law, HP says. Retrieved 4/17/2010 from http://eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=224202453. Quoting from the article:


 * Hewlett-Packard has demonstrated memristors ("memory resistors") cast in an architecture that can be dynamically changed between logic operations and memory storage. The configurable architecture demonstrates "stateful logic" that HP claims could someday obsolete the dedicated central-processing unit (CPU) by enabling dynamically changing circuits to maintain a constant memory of their state. That would let them be powered down at any time without the need to reboot at startup.


 * The architecture makes memristors a candidate for extending Moore's Law beyond the end of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, circa 2020, according to HP. The ITRS has called for a new state variable besides charge or voltage to represent bits, and HP claims that the variable "resistance" employed by its stateful logic circuitry fills the bill.

Forbes Forecasts for 2020
Five short videos from Forbes retrieved 4/13/2010. Topics are home, job, diet, health, and reputation. For each, you must first view an ad.

Memristor
Markoff, J. (5/7/2010). H.P. sees a revolution in memory chip. Retrieved 5/8/2010 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/science/08chips.html?ref=technology. Quoting from the article:


 * In an interview at the H.P. research lab, Stan Williams, a company physicist, said that in the two years since announcing working devices, his team had increased their switching speed to match today’s conventional silicon transistors. The researchers had tested them in the laboratory, he added, proving they could reliably make hundreds of thousands of reads and writes.       …


 * Dr. Williams said that H.P. now has working 3-nanometer meristors that can switch on and off in about a nanosecond, or a billionth of a second.


 * He said the company could have a competitor to flash memory in three years that would have a capacity of 20 gigabytes a square centimeter.


 * “We believe that that is at least a factor of two better storage than flash memory will be able to have in that time frame,” he said

Next 20 Years of Microchips
Scientific American Magazine (January 2010). The next 20 years of microchips: Pushing performance boundaries. Retrieved 2/27/2010 from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-next-20-years-of-microchips. Quoting from the article:


 * It may soon be impossible to make transistors on integrated-circuit chips even smaller. Alternative materials and designs will be needed for chips to continue to improve.
 * Nanowires, graphene, quantum particles and biological molecules could all spawn new generations of chips that are more powerful than today’s best.

Seven Forecasts
Lazowska, E. (12/24/09). Exponentials R Us: Seven computer science game-changers from the 2000’s, and seven more to come. Retrieved 2/27/2010 from http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2009/12/24/exponentials-r-us-seven-computer-science-game-changers-from-the-2000%E2%80%99s-and-seven-more-to-come/. Quoting from the Wewbsite:


 * Ed Lazowska holds the Bill & Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science & Engineering at the University of Washington. His research and teaching concern the design, implementation, and analysis of high-performance computing and communication systems.


 * “Exponentials R Us.” That’s the magic of computer science. It’s what differentiates us from all other fields. (To the extent that other fields are experiencing exponentials, it’s because of computer science – for example, the sensor technology and computational power that are driving biotech.) “Exponentials R Us” is the past, the present, and the future of computer science. If you think you can have greater impact doing something else, you’ve got your head wedged.

Forecasts are given in seven areas: smart homes, smart cars, smart bodies, smart robots, the data deluge, virtual and augmented reality, and smart crowds and human-computer systems.

Lower Voltage Computer Circuitry
Zyga, L.(2/17/2010). Near-threshold computing could enable up to 100x reduction in power consumption. Retrieved 2/24/2010 from http://www.physorg.com/news185621560.html. Quoting from the report:


 * In a recent study, a team of researchers, Ronald Dreslinski, et al., from the University of Michigan, have investigated a solution to the power problem by using a method called near-threshold computing (NTC). In the NTC method, electronic devices operate at lower voltages than normal, which reduces energy consumption. The researchers predict that NTC could enable future computer systems to reduce energy requirements by 10 to 100 times or more, by optimizing them for low-voltage operation. Unfortunately, low-voltage operation also involves performance trade-offs: specifically, performance loss, performance variation, and memory and logic failures.

Comment by Dave Moursund: The educational implications of such a breakthrough are quite interesting. A gain in battery life by a factor of 10 makes a considerable difference in the infrastructure needed to support laptop computers in a school environment.

Robots May Replace More Humans at Work
Solomon, H. (2/10/2010). Robots will replace all workers in 25 years: Futurist. itWorldCanada. Retrieved 2/17/2010 from http://www.itworldcanada.com/news/robots-will-replace-all-workers-in-25-years-futurist/139969. Quoting from the article:


 * If you believe Cisco Systems Inc. futurist Dave Evan, in five years we’ll be creating the equivalent of 92 million Libraries of Congress worth of data a year, in 20 years artificial brain implants will be available and in 25 years robots will replace all workers.


 * Not surprisingly, perhaps, considering the way organizations and individuals are reluctant to purge their hard drives, Evans foresees the world’s data will increase six times in each of the next two years – including corporate data multiplying 50 times a year. So by 2029 we’ll pay a mere US$100 for 11 petabytes of storage.

Comment by Dave Moursund: Educational Implications There are four main ideas in this article. Three are the growing capabilities of computers, networking, and storage. The fourth is that robots will eventually (within 25 years, perhaps) be able to do most jobs. Suppose that this last forecast is not very accurate, but that starting 15–20 years from now we begin to see a significant decrease in human-performed jobs, year after year. It need not be a very large percentage decrease each year. Just try to imagine worldwide unemployment growing one or two percent a year, year after year. Meanwhile, worldwide production of food, clothing, shelter, and so on grows fast enough, so that whether people are employed or not, they are provided with a decent and perhaps slowly improving standard of living.

Of course, this sounds like science fiction. In terms of educational implications, what constitutes a good education for adult life in a world in which relatively few people have jobs? Here is another way of looking at this question. Think of a child starting kindergarten this coming fall. This person may well spend 13 years in the K-12 educational system, and perhaps 2–4 years or more in higher education. By the time s/he finishes all of these years of education, the worldwide unemployment level will already have begun a steady rise due to robots and other computerized machines. Now, with this type of forecast, what should the K-12 and higher education be like for this person?

And think about the information growth projected in the article. Before our hypothetical young student completes elementary school, the totality of stored data will be growing yearly by an amount that is equivalent to 92 million Libraries of Congress. Wow! Talk about information overload…

Artificial Intelligence: Peter Norvig
Kennedy, J. (January 14, 2010). Interview of Peter Norvig, head of research at Google. Retrieved 1/20/2010 from http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/14862/randd/artificial-intelligence-is-more-than-just-talk-googles-top-inventor. Quoting from the interview:


 * You wrote a book on artificial intelligence and are currently looking at the future of search. Do you think we’ll soon be talking to our computers?


 * Yep, that is happening to a degree now, but we’re not using the same language. We’re talking to a search engine in keywords rather than in whole sentences and it doesn’t quite understand us as well as a person would.


 * But on the other hand it is giving us answers that a person wouldn’t, so it has its strengths and weaknesses.

Outlook 2010
Marsan, C.D. (1/4/2010). 10 fool-proof predictions for the Internet in 2020. Retrieved 1/4/2010 from http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010410-outlook-vision-predictions.html. Quoting from the article:


 * Forty years after it was invented, the Internet is straining under the weight of cyber attacks, multimedia content and new mobile applications. In response, U.S. computer scientists are re-thinking every aspect of the Internet's architecture, from IP addresses to routing tables (see main story: 2020 Vision: Why you won't recognize the 'Net in 10 years) to overall Internet security. There are many views about how to fix the Internet's architecture, but there's widespread agreement about many aspects of the future Internet. Here's our list of 11 surefire bets for what the Internet will look like in a decade.


 * Today's Internet has 1.7 billion users, according to Internet World Stats. This compares with a world population of 6.7 billion people. There's no doubt more people will have Internet access by 2020. Indeed, the National Science Foundation predicts that the Internet will have nearly 5 billion users by then.


 * Most of the Internet's growth over the next 10 years will come from developing countries. The regions with the lowest penetration rates are Africa (6.8%), Asia (19.4%) and the Middle East (28.3%), according to Internet World Stats. In contrast, North America has a penetration rate of 74.2%. This trend means the Internet in 2020 will not only reach more remote locations around the globe but also will support more languages and non-ASCII scripts.

Creating a Living Mind
Hanlon, M. (1/4/2010). The real Frankenstein experiment: One man's mission to create a living mind inside a machine. Mail Online. Retrieved 1/4/2010 from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1240410/The-real-Frankenstein-experiment-One-mans-mission-create-living-mind-inside-machine.html. Quoting from the article:


 * Professor Henry Markram, a doctor-turned-computer engineer, announced that his team would create the world's first artificial conscious and intelligent mind by 2018.


 * So far, Markram's supercomputer - an IBM Blue Gene - is able, using the information gleaned from the slivers of real brain tissue, to simulate the workings of about 10,000 neurones, amounting to a single rat's 'neocortical column' - the part of a brain believed to be the centre of conscious thought.


 * Of course, consciousness is one of the deepest scientific mysteries. How do millions of tiny electrical impulses in our heads give rise to the feeling of self, of pain, of love? No one knows.


 * But if Markram is right, this doesn't matter. He believes that consciousness is probably something that simply 'emerges' given a sufficient degree of organised complexity.

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