What the Future is Bringing Us (2014)



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BigDog is a rough-terrain robot built by Boston Dynamics that walks, runs, climbs and carries heavy loads. BigDog is powered by an engine that drives a hydraulic actuation system. BigDog has four legs that are articulated like an animal’s, with compliant elements to absorb shock and recycle energy from one step to the next. BigDog is the size of a large dog or small mule; about 3 feet long, 2.5 feet tall and weighs 240 lbs. See more pictures of social robots at http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=pictures+social+robots&qpvt=pictures+social+robots&qpvt=pictures+social+robots&FORM=IQFRML.



See MIT's Electric Cheetah Robot video at http://www.engadget.com/2014/09/15/mit-darpa-cheetah-robot/.



The Cray-2 supercomputer was the world's fastest supercomputer until 1990. But even with a performance of up to 1.9 GFLOPS, the liquid-cooled, 200-kilowatt machine ranks behind a number of "modern" portable, battery-powered Smart phones when it comes to GFLOPS ratings.

Year 2014 Table of Contents



 * "All education springs from some image of the future. If the image of the future held by a society is grossly inaccurate, its education system will betray its youth." (Alvin Toffler; American writer and futurist; born October 3, 1928.)


 * "Don't worry about what anybody else is going to do. The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn't violate too many of Newton's Laws!" (Alan Kay; American computer scientist and educator; born May 17, 1940.)

Introduction
All of education is future oriented. Through informal and formal education, students are being prepared for their futures. Of course, a major goal of education is to preserve and pass on the culture, values, history, and so on from the past. Ideally, this is done in a manner that helps prepare students for their futures as members of local, regional, national, and world societies.

Technology Forecasting Quoting from Wikipedia:


 * Primarily, a technological forecast deals with the characteristics of technology, such as levels of technical performance, like speed of a military aircraft, the power in watts of a particular future engine, the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument, the number of transistors in a chip in the year 2015, etc. The forecast does not have to state how these characteristics will be achieved.




 * If a decision maker has several alternatives open to him, he will choose among them on the basis of which provides him with the most desirable outcome. Thus his decision is inevitably based on a forecast. His only choice is whether the forecast is obtained by rational and explicit methods, or by intuitive means.

Forecasting is an important field of study and of human intellectual endeavor. Continuing to quote from the Wikipedia page cited above: "The virtue of the use of explicit methods is that they can be reviewed by others, and can be checked for consistency. Furthermore, the forecast can be reviewed at any subsequent time. Technology forecasting is not imagination."

Special Message for Teachers Consider establishing a "futures" time period each week, in which you engage your students in an exploration of possible futures they will live in and how the subject(s) you are teaching are helping to prepare them for these possible futures. One way to do this is to select a topic from this year's list, or other annual lists published on this website. Engage students in a discussion of what they know about the topic. Perhaps point them to some material to read. Engage them in a discussion of how the content you are teaching fits in with preparing them for life in a world in which the forecasts on this website may well come true.

Another approach is to encourage your students to bring in hard copy materials and Web links that contain forecasts of the future. Each week a different small team of students could assume responsibility for leading the weekly "futures" session.

Still another approach is to raise the following question with your students near the beginning of any new unit of study: "What changes are going on around the world that are having a major impact on this unit of study?" The idea is to emphasize change and the understanding that you are helping your students to get an education that prepares them for a changing world.

Teachers working with students may also be interested in having the students research and report on one or more "futures predictions" from 5 to 10 years ago, or perhaps when they were in first grade, or the year they were born, and so on. They can find out which predictions have become part of our world today and which ones failed to materialize, and why or why not in each case.

Looking Forward
This section contains relatively recent forecasts of future technology that are important to our current and future educational systems. For the most part, the newest entries are at the top of this section.

NSF Advanced Computing Infrastructure
Here is a recent free report published by the National Academies Press:

National Academies Press (2014). Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science and Engineering in 2017-2020: Interim Report. Retrieved 11/19/2014 from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=18972.

Here is a forecast quoted from the report:


 * New knowledge and skills will be needed to effectively use these new advanced computing technologies. “Hybrid” disciplines such as computational science and data science and interdisciplinary teams may come to play an increasingly important role.

The report indicated that we are now moving into the situation that research in the sciences have four major approaches: theoretical, experimental, modeling/simulation, and data analysis (big data). An example of the data analysis (big data) is provided by the Large Hadron Collider. Quoting from the linked site:


 * Approximately 600 million times per second, particles collide within the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Each collision generates particles that often decay in complex ways into even more particles. Electronic circuits record the passage of each particle through a detector as a series of electronic signals, and send the data to the CERN Data Centre (DC) for digital reconstruction. The digitized summary is recorded as a "collision event". Physicists must sift through the 30 petabytes (30 time ten to the 15th bytes) or so of data produced annually to determine if the collisions have thrown up any interesting physics.

The future of Higher Education
Moursund, David (10/28/2014). Forecasts About the Future of Higher Education. IAE Blog. Retrieved 11/19/2014 from http://i-a-e.org/iae-blog/entry/forecasts-about-the-future-of-higher-education.html.

This IAE Blog entry begins with a 1997 quote from Peter Drucker about the future of higher education, and then continues with a 2013 from Thomas Frey. Quoting from the blog entry:


 * Frey looks at colleges as a type of business that has existed for a long time. Quoting from his article:

So what happens when the legacy power of an institution meets a rapidly changing business environment driven by emerging technology? Some will survive but many will not.




 * The “education industrial complex” is perhaps the most influential in the world, with everyone from Presidents and world leaders, to Nobel Laureates, to CEOs and business executives all unwavering in their support of colleges and their accomplishments. [Bold added for emphasis.]

MIT's Electric Cheetah Robot
Gorman, Michael (9/15/2014). MIT's Electric Cheetah Robot Silently Bounds Across Campus. Time Magazine. Retrieved 9/15/2014 from http://www.engadget.com/2014/09/15/mit-darpa-cheetah-robot/. Quoting from the article:


 * We've seen MIT's super-fast four legged Cheetah bot sprint on a treadmill many times, but it seems that the team at MIT is finally ready to let the thing outside. Now, quadrupedal bots traversing hill and dale are nothing new, but the Cheetah's doing so using a new algorithm and without the benefit of an internal combustion engine or hydraulics. That algorithm determines the amount of force the bot's custom high-torque electrical motors deliver, which in turn controls how fast the robot runs and how high it leaps. Using this force-based approach, the Cheetah is more stable and agile, according to the boffins at MIT, and it can maintain its balance as the speed of its gait increases. Not to mention that the electric motors are quiet, so instead of an exhaust note, you only hear the pitter patter of robot feet. This all adds up to a robot that can silently bound across uneven ground and even jump over obstacles.

Soft Robots
Pescovitz, David (8/21/2014). Robots That Show Their Softer Side. Bloomberg Businessweek. Retrieved 9/15/2014 from http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-21/soft-robotics-research-snuggle-against-the-machine. Quoting from the article:


 * Many of tomorrow’s robots may have more in common with beanbag chairs and bouncy houses than the hulking industrial arms in factories today. Breakthroughs in the nascent field of soft robotics, in which steel skeletons and power-hungry motors make way for textiles, are beginning to move from the laboratory to the startup world. Imagine an octopuslike robot that can squirm through rubble at a disaster site but has the strength to pull bricks off an injured person. Or a machine that can safely place an elderly person in bed. Several companies are working on these problems, frequently working from research sponsored by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), the Pentagon arm that seeks and funds futuristic technology. “Soft robotics has the potential to influence all kinds of robotic and machine design,” says Gerald Van Hoy, an analyst at market research firm Gartner. “It’s a key development in the evolution of robotics.”

Video Games in Education
Malykhina, Elena (9/12/2014). Fact or Fiction?: Video Games Are the Future of Education. Scientific American. Retrieved 9/15/2014 from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-video-games-are-the-future-of-education/.

Quoting from the article:


 * Video games are playing an increasing role in school curricula as teachers seek to deliver core lessons such as math and reading—not to mention new skills such as computer programming—in a format that holds their students’ interests. Some herald this gamification of education as the way of the future and a tool that allows students to take a more active role in learning as they develop the technology skills they need to succeed throughout their academic and professional careers.

A Mind-expanding Experience
Moursund, David (9/1/2014). A Mind-expanding Experience. Information Age Education Blog. Retrieved 9/1/2014 from http://i-a-e.org/iae-blog/entry/a-mind-expanding-experience.html.

Presents information about the work of four of the 35 innovators identified by MIT Technology Review and presented in the 35 Innovators Under 35 article in its September-October 2014 issue.

Innovators Identified by MIT Technology Review
35 Innovators Under 35 (September-October, 2014). MIT Technology Review. Retrieved 8/31/2014 from http://www.technologyreview.com/lists/innovators-under-35/2014/.

The "under 35" project identifies 35 innovators under the age of35 and tells the story about what each is doing.

The Wikipedia article presents a history of the “under 35” project and links to previous years’ results. Quoting from the Wikipedia:


 * The award was started in 1999 as the TR100, with 100 winners, but was changed to 35 winners starting in 2005. The awards are presented to the winners at the annual Emtech conference on emerging technologies, held in the fall at MIT, where there is an awards ceremony and reception. There are several regional TR35 lists produced by Technology Review also, such as the list of the top 35 innovators under 35 in India, Spain, Italy, and France. The regional winners are then considered as candidates for the global list.

For more examples of technological innovations, see http://www.technologyreview.com/emtech/14/. Quoting from this site:


 * For almost 115 years, MIT Technology Review has been identifying important new technologies and deciphering their practical impact. We’ve brought that mission and our journalism to life through EmTech since 1999, gathering the sharpest minds in the technology, engineering, academic, startup, and management communities to provide insight into the innovations that shape the world and your business.

Five Future Forecasts

 * Gray, Scott. (2014). Five future forecasts that will change the world. h+ Magazine. Retrieved 5/3/2014 from http://hplusmagazine.com/2014/01/02/5-future-forecasts-that-will-change-the-world/.

Quoting from the article:


 * By 2035, even if a majority of humans do not self-identify as Transhuman, technically they will be. If we define any bio-upgrade or human enhancement as Transhumanism, then the numbers are already quite high and growing more. According to a new market research study, the implantable medical devices market will grow at an annual compounded rate of 8 percent from 2012 to 2018. This includes re-constructive joint replacements, spinal implants, cardiovascular implants, dental implants, intraocular lens and breast implants. This does not factor in new and emerging technologies and innovations that are growing exponentially and geometrically.


 * The future will be filled with digital implants, mind controlled exoskeletal upgrades, age reversal pills, hyper-intelligence brain implants and bionic muscle upgrades. All of these technologies will literally make us more Transhuman.

Ten Futurist Predictions

 * Briseno, Terri (2014). 10 futurist predictions in the world of technology. How Stuff Works. Retrieved 5/3/2014 from http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/future-tech/10-futurist-predictions-in-the-world-of-technology.htm.

Here is a sample quoted from the cited reference:


 * Space exploration has taken some hits in the 21st century, with cuts to the U.S. and other international space program budgets. But with the Curiosity Rover on Mars as of August 2012 and plans to launch the "most powerful rocket in history," the Space Launch System (SLS) by 2017, NASA is still very much in the business of the future. After the planned, unmanned sendoff of the SLS in 2017, NASA intends to send a crew of up to four astronauts into space by 2021. This could be a return to the moon, with capabilities for missions on other planets [sources: Landau; NASA].

BBC Future
The British Broadcasting System publishes many "future forecasting" articles. For example, see the 2 January 2013 report:


 * BBC. (2 January, 2013). Tomorrow’s world: A guide to the next 150 years. British Broadcasting System. Retrieved 5/3/2014 from http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130102-tomorrows-world.

This site contains a graphical representation of forecasts for 2013 to 2150.

See the BBC site: Top Future Stories.

New Horizon Project Reports
Quoting from the the NMC Horizon Project:


 * The New Media Consortium (NMC) Horizon Project charts the landscape of emerging technologies for teaching, learning, and research, creative inquiry. Launched in 2002, it epitomizes the mission of the NMC to help educators and thought leaders across the world build upon the innovation happening at their institutions by providing them with expert research and analysis.




 * For each edition of the NMC Horizon Report, an advisory board considers the results of these dialogs and looks at a wide range of articles, research, papers, project examples, and websites to generate a list of technologies, trends, and challenges that knowledgeable people in technology industries, higher education, K-12, and museums across the globe are traversing.

Via the link given above, you can access the Horizon reports in Higher Education and K-12 Education, as well as the Museum Edition and Technology Outlook.

Here is a quote from the Preview to the 2014 K-12 Report:


 * There is a new emphasis in the classroom on more challenge based, active learning. Challenge Based Learning and similar methods foster more active learning experiences, both inside and outside the classroom. As technologies such as tablets and smartphones now have proven applications in schools, educators are leveraging these tools, which students already use, to connect the curriculum with real life issues. The active learning approaches are decidedly more student-centered, allowing them to take control of how they engage with a subject and to brainstorm and implement solutions to pressing local and global problems. The hope is that if learners can connect the course material with their own lives and their surrounding communities, then they will become more excited to learn and immerse themselves in the subject matter.

Solar Power

 * Halal, William (4/7/2014). Solar power taking off. Techcast Global. Retrieved 5/3/2014 from http://www.techcastglobal.com/home/-/asset_publisher/icgQEJnCo7Dy/content/solar-taking-off/maximized;jsessionid=6ED317AF99365BDA0F6CFA83F31D969B?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techcastglobal.com%2Fhome%3Bjsessionid%3D6ED317AF99365BDA0F6CFA83F31D969B%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_icgQEJnCo7Dy%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-2%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D3.

Quoting from the article:


 * After decades of agonizing over the dearth of solar power, energy utilities are reeling from the impact of people installing megawatts of photovoltaic panels. With stiff global competition spurring cheap solar pricing, photovoltaic cells from China now cost as little at $.25/watt, making solar comparable to grid electricity in parts of the U.S., EU, India, Hawaii, Italy, Spain, and other regions now favorable to solar.


 * Countries in the EU and Asia are adopting solar to avoid dependence on carbon and nuclear fuels. Germany leads the world with about 35 GW of solar capacity installed as of 2014, although output varies with weather, of course, averaging roughly half of total capacity. The nation recently got 40% of its electricity from solar on one day, and plans to have 80% of electric power from solar in 2050.

Five Simultaneous Technology Revolutions

 * Bishnell, Dennis (2/17/2014). Changing context of TechCast and other projections. Techcast Global. Retrieved 5/3/2014 from http://www.techcastglobal.com/home/-/asset_publisher/icgQEJnCo7Dy/content/changing-context-of-techcast-and-other-projections/maximized;jsessionid=6ED317AF99365BDA0F6CFA83F31D969B?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techcastglobal.com%2Fhome%3Bjsessionid%3D6ED317AF99365BDA0F6CFA83F31D969B%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_icgQEJnCo7Dy%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-2%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D3.

Dennis, Bishnell, the author of this article, is Chief Scientist, Langley Research Center. Quoting form the article:


 * The world is experiencing, as is often stated, at least 5 simultaneous technology revolutions, IT, Bio, Nano, Energetics, and Quantum, which are extensively changing society in real time. The projection of expectations and progress in any individual technology is subject to a myriad of technical issues and other aspects of the context within which they develop.




 * Far more than warm/ hot days and wet feet, climate change is only one aspect of an overall "crashing of the ecosystem," as we require more than is available. Estimates indicate we are short some 40% of a planet now, and as the Asians acquire western living standards, we will need several more planets, but none are available. Sustainability appears to be in the offing as a replacement for "growth" per se.

I find the second quote given above particularly interesting. The world is in trouble. With our current technologies, we do not have enough resources to provide a western living standard to the whole population. The issue of sustainability is coming to the forefront.

Computer Modeling of Human Brain

 * Sparkes, Matthew (1/13/2014). Supercomputer models one second of human brain activity. The Telegraph. Retrieved 2/20/2014 from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10567942/Supercomputer-models-one-second-of-human-brain-activity.html.

Quoting from the article:


 * The most accurate simulation of the human brain to date has been carried out in a Japanese supercomputer, with a single second’s worth of activity from just one per cent of the complex organ taking one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers 40 minutes to calculate.


 * Researchers used the K computer in Japan, currently the fourth most powerful in the world, to simulate human brain activity. The computer has 705,024 processor cores and 1.4 million GB of RAM, but still took 40 minutes to crunch the data for just one second of brain activity.

Such an article suggests that the human brain is very capable and complex relative to the capabilities of today's computers. However, the article gives little insight into what is actually being simulated. I presume that the simulation is at the level of the activities of individual neurons. A report available at http://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2012/feb/28/how-many-neurons-human-brain indicates that an average adult human brain has about 85 billion neurons. So, the simulation was for somewhat less than a billion neurons.

But an individual neuron is very complex, and a typical neuron's dendrites interact with approximately 10,000 other neurons. So, this one second of human brain activity in one-percent of a human brain involves the actions of perhaps 8 trillion dendrites! The number are mind boggling to me.

The article includes forecasts of when we expect to have much faster computers that will be able to do a more rapid simulation of a larger portion of a human brain.

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